UAE $1.4 Trillion Dollar: Global AI Dominance

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UAE’s $1.4 Trillion-Dollar for Global AI Supremacy

The National Vision – Forging a Post-Oil Future with AI

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has embarked on one of the most ambitious and capital-intensive national transformations in modern history, placing artificial intelligence (AI) at the very heart of its strategy for a post-oil future. This is not merely an economic diversification play; it is a comprehensive, state-directed endeavor to secure national relevance, geopolitical influence, and sustained prosperity in a dawning era where computational power is the new strategic commodity. Through a meticulously coordinated series of multi-billion-dollar investments, strategic international partnerships, and the cultivation of sovereign technological capabilities, the UAE is systematically constructing an “algorithmic state.” This report analyzes the foundational pillars of this strategy, dissecting the national vision that propels it, the key state-backed entities architecting its execution, and the profound implications of its success. The analysis reveals a tightly integrated ecosystem designed for speed, scale, and strategic impact, positioning the UAE not just as a participant in the global AI race, but as a potential kingmaker.

The National AI Strategy 2031: A Blueprint for Sovereignty

At the core of the UAE’s technological ambitions lies the National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031, a comprehensive blueprint launched to establish the nation as a global leader in AI by the end of the next decade.1 The strategy’s overarching goal is to integrate AI so deeply into the fabric of the economy and government that it becomes a primary engine of growth, with the stated aim of generating up to AED 335 billion (approximately $91 billion) in economic value and having AI contribute nearly 14% of its GDP by 2030.4 Some projections suggest this could equate to a 26% increase in economic output.3 More pointedly, the strategy aims for AI to account for 20% of the UAE’s non-oil GDP by 2031, a clear indicator of its central role in the nation’s economic diversification efforts.6 This initiative is explicitly linked to the country’s long-term UAE Centennial 2071 vision, which seeks to make the UAE the best country in the world, framing the AI strategy not as a standalone policy but as a foundational pillar for future national prosperity.1

To achieve this vision, the strategy is built upon eight interconnected strategic objectives that demonstrate a holistic, top-down approach to building a complete AI ecosystem 3:

  1. Build a Reputation as an AI Destination: Actively cultivate a global brand (“UAI”) to attract international talent, investment, and conferences, positioning the UAE as a premier hub for AI development and governance.3
  2. Increase Competitiveness in Priority Sectors: Deploy AI to enhance productivity and innovation in key industries where the UAE has existing strengths or strategic ambitions, including resources and energy, logistics and transport, tourism, healthcare, and cybersecurity.2
  3. Develop a Fertile Ecosystem for AI: Foster a vibrant domestic AI sector by supporting local startups through funding and mentorship, while simultaneously attracting established international firms with incentives and partnership opportunities.8
  4. Adopt AI Across Government Services: Leverage AI to improve the efficiency, quality, and accessibility of public services, enhancing the quality of life for citizens and residents.3
  5. Attract and Train Talent: Create a sustainable pipeline of AI-skilled professionals through widespread public training, specialized upskilling for STEM graduates, and advanced courses for government employees.4
  6. Build World-Leading Research Capability: Establish world-class research institutions and programs, such as a National Virtual AI Institute, to collaborate with industry and drive foundational and applied AI research.3
  7. Provide Essential Data and Infrastructure: Develop a robust and secure data-sharing framework and the necessary high-performance computing infrastructure to serve as a testbed for AI innovation.2
  8. Ensure Strong Governance and Effective Regulation: Create and champion a clear, agile, and ethical governance framework for AI, positioning the UAE as a leader in global discussions on responsible AI development.3

Implementation of this strategy is well underway. The government has established the UAE Council for Artificial Intelligence to oversee and coordinate these efforts.1 On the regulatory front, it has moved to create the “soft infrastructure” necessary for a trusted AI ecosystem, enacting foundational legislation such as Federal Law No. 45 of 2021 on the Protection of Personal Data.1 This law, along with initiatives like the Dubai Ethical AI Toolkit and national AI ethics guidelines, is designed to build public trust and ensure that AI development aligns with principles of fairness, transparency, and accountability.6 Furthermore, the establishment of regulatory sandboxes in financial centers allows firms to experiment with AI-driven services in a controlled environment, fostering innovation while managing risk.4 This combination of ambitious vision, detailed strategic planning, and concrete implementation demonstrates a profound and sustained national commitment to leading the AI revolution.

The Architects of Ambition – G42, MGX, and MBZUAI

The UAE’s AI strategy is not merely a set of policies but a dynamic operation executed by a powerful and interconnected triad of state-backed entities. Each organization has a distinct but complementary role, forming a cohesive structure that enables the nation to pursue its technological ambitions with the agility and focus of a vertically integrated global corporation. This institutional architecture—combining technology, capital, and talent—is a core competitive advantage, allowing for rapid decision-making and strategic alignment.

G42 – The Technology Champion:

At the forefront of the UAE’s technological execution is G42, an Abu Dhabi-based AI and cloud computing holding company.14 Chaired by H.H. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s National Security Adviser, G42 functions as the nation’s primary vehicle for operationalizing its AI vision.15 It is the “doer” in the ecosystem, tasked with building and deploying cutting-edge AI capabilities. G42’s portfolio is extensive, encompassing sovereign cloud solutions through its subsidiary Core42, which provides AI infrastructure and managed services to government and enterprise clients.17 G42’s strategy hinges on forging deep partnerships with global technology leaders to access and co-develop best-in-class technology. Its landmark collaborations include a $1.5 billion strategic partnership with Microsoft 14, a multi-supercomputer project with US-based Cerebras Systems 20, and collaborations with AMD to power its infrastructure.17 These partnerships are instrumental in G42’s flagship projects, such as the development of the Condor Galaxy supercomputer network and the JAIS family of Arabic large language models, which are tangible manifestations of the UAE’s goal to build sovereign capabilities.21

MGX – The Strategic Investment Vehicle:

The financial engine of the UAE’s AI strategy is MGX, a state-owned investment company launched in March 2024 with the express purpose of investing in AI and advanced technologies.23 Formed from the expertise of sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the AI-focused G42, MGX has a target of managing over $100 billion in assets, positioning it as one of the world’s most significant technology-focused investment funds.24 Like G42, MGX is chaired by H.H. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, with Khaldoon Al Mubarak, CEO of Mubadala, serving as vice-chairman, ensuring tight strategic alignment at the highest levels of government.24 MGX’s mission is to leverage the UAE’s sovereign wealth to secure access to critical technologies and build a global AI ecosystem centered in Abu Dhabi.25 Its investment strategy covers the entire AI value chain, from semiconductors and infrastructure to AI applications in life sciences and automation.25 MGX is the UAE’s primary vehicle for participating in monumental global AI projects, serving as a key equity funder in both the $100 billion AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP) alongside BlackRock and Microsoft, and the $500 billion OpenAI-led Stargate Project.24

MBZUAI – The Human Capital Foundation:

The third pillar of the UAE’s AI ecosystem is the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), the world’s first graduate-level, research-based university dedicated exclusively to AI.28 Established in 2019, MBZUAI is the nation’s long-term solution to one of the most significant challenges in the global AI race: the talent bottleneck.4 Under the leadership of its president, the world-renowned AI scholar Professor Eric Xing, MBZUAI’s mission is to cultivate a new generation of top-tier AI researchers and engineers.30 The university is ranked among the top institutions globally for AI research, with specialized programs in computer vision, machine learning, and natural language processing.28 By offering full scholarships to exceptional students from around the world, MBZUAI attracts elite talent to Abu Dhabi, creating an indigenous and locally-based workforce capable of driving and sustaining the nation’s AI ambitions for decades to come.30 The university works in close collaboration with G42, providing the research and human capital that power projects like the JAIS large language model, thereby closing the loop between academic research, technological development, and national strategy.22

The deliberate design of this triad is a masterclass in state-led strategic planning. The seamless coordination between G42’s technological execution, MGX’s financial firepower, and MBZUAI’s talent cultivation creates a powerful flywheel effect. MGX’s investments secure access to the world’s most advanced technology and infrastructure. G42 leverages this access to build and deploy sovereign AI solutions. MBZUAI provides the stream of highly skilled researchers and engineers needed to operate and innovate within this advanced ecosystem. The shared leadership and national mandate ensure that all three entities are pulling in the same direction, allowing the UAE to execute a complex, multi-decade strategy with a level of speed and coherence that few other nations can match. This institutional structure is arguably the UAE’s most potent secret weapon in its quest for AI supremacy.

EntityTypeKey LeadershipCore MissionFlagship Initiatives/Partnerships
G42AI & Cloud Technology Holding CompanyH.H. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan (Chairman), Peng Xiao (CEO) 14To be a global leader in creating visionary AI for a better tomorrow; to operationalize the UAE’s national AI strategy. 14$1.5B partnership with Microsoft, Condor Galaxy supercomputer network with Cerebras, JAIS Arabic LLM, Stargate UAE. 14
MGXAI & Advanced Technology Investment FundH.H. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan (Chairman), Ahmed Yahia Al Idrissi (CEO) 24To accelerate the responsible development of AI-led technologies by investing sovereign wealth in the global AI ecosystem. 23AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP) with BlackRock & Microsoft; Stargate Project with OpenAI & SoftBank; JV for AI Campus in France. 25
MBZUAIGraduate Research UniversityProfessor Eric Xing (President), Professor Timothy Baldwin (Provost) 30To educate and develop top AI talent, foster an innovation ecosystem, and serve as a strategic think tank. 30World’s first graduate-level AI university; research partner for the JAIS LLM; global top-10 ranking in AI research fields. 22

The Investment Nexus – Capital, Compute, and Collaboration

The United Arab Emirates is leveraging its immense sovereign wealth not merely for financial returns but as a potent geopolitical tool to build a world-leading AI ecosystem. Through a series of multi-billion and trillion-dollar investment frameworks, the UAE is systematically acquiring access to critical technology, co-funding the construction of foundational infrastructure, and forging deep, strategic alliances with the world’s preeminent technology corporations and investment firms. This section dissects the key financial commitments and partnerships that form the backbone of the UAE’s strategy, revealing a sophisticated approach that intertwines capital with access to compute and global collaboration.

The $1.4 Trillion US Investment Framework: A Strategic Bargain

In a move that underscores the depth of its economic and strategic alignment with the United States, the UAE has committed to a landmark 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the US.37 Announced in March 2025 and accelerated through a series of deals in May 2025, this framework substantially expands upon an already robust $1 trillion economic relationship between the two nations.41 The investment is not a diffuse allocation of capital but a highly targeted injection into sectors that are foundational to the next industrial revolution: AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, quantum computing, biotechnology, and American manufacturing.37

This strategic allocation serves a dual purpose. For the UAE, it is the primary mechanism for gaining access to cutting-edge US technology and securing its place as a trusted partner within the American technological orbit. For the US, particularly under the Trump administration’s “America First” economic policy, the framework provides a massive influx of foreign direct investment to fuel domestic manufacturing, drive exports, and support tens of thousands of American jobs.41 This symbiotic relationship is explicitly detailed in White House announcements, which link the UAE’s investment commitment directly to an AI agreement containing “historic commitments by the UAE to further align their national security regulations with the United States, including strong protections to prevent the diversion of U.S.-origin technology”.41

Concrete deals under this framework illustrate its strategic focus. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ, in partnership with US private equity firm Energy Capital Partners, announced a $25 billion initiative focused on investing in American energy infrastructure and data centers.37 XRG, the energy investment arm of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC), committed to supporting US natural gas production and exports through an investment in the NextDecade LNG facility in Texas, with further plans for investments in gas, chemicals, and low-carbon solutions.40 In a move to bolster critical supply chains, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) plans to invest in the first new aluminum smelter in the United States in 35 years, an action projected to nearly double US domestic aluminum production.38 This “capital-for-access” doctrine is the central pillar of the UAE’s strategy: by providing the capital to help the US achieve its industrial and geopolitical objectives, the UAE secures, in return, access to the technologies and markets essential for its own transformation into an AI powerhouse.

The AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP): Building the Digital Foundation

Recognizing that the AI revolution is built on a physical foundation of data centers and power plants, the UAE has positioned itself as a central player in funding and developing this critical infrastructure. The primary vehicle for this is the AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP), a global consortium aiming to mobilize up to $100 billion to finance the construction of next-generation data centers and the energy solutions required to power them.37

The consortium’s membership highlights its strategic importance and technical prowess. The founding partners include the UAE’s technology investment fund MGX, global investment titan BlackRock, its subsidiary Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), and technology giant Microsoft.27 The partnership was significantly bolstered in March 2025 with the inclusion of two of the most influential names in AI: NVIDIA and xAI.27 NVIDIA, the world’s leading designer of AI chips, brings unparalleled technical expertise in accelerated computing and “AI factories”.43 The addition of Elon Musk’s xAI reinforces the partnership’s commitment to an open, non-exclusive ecosystem capable of supporting a diverse range of AI players.44

The AIP’s investment strategy is designed for scale. It plans to raise an initial $30 billion in equity from investors and asset owners, which will then be used to catalyze an additional $70 billion in debt financing, creating a $100 billion pool of capital for projects.27 The geographic focus of these investments is revealing: approximately 65% of the funds are slated for projects in the US, with the remainder allocated to other OECD and “US partner” countries, a category that implicitly includes the UAE.27 This structure allows the UAE’s capital, via MGX, to directly fund the build-out of the American AI backbone while also ensuring capital flows back to develop infrastructure in allied nations.

Crucially, the AIP directly addresses the single greatest bottleneck facing the AI industry: energy. The exponential growth in AI compute demand has created an insatiable appetite for electricity, with data center energy consumption projected to more than double between 2022 and 2026.45 To solve this, the AIP has forged collaborations with energy giants like GE Vernova and NextEra Energy to accelerate the scaling of power solutions for data centers, including renewables, battery storage, and natural gas.43 This symbiotic relationship between compute and energy is fundamental to the UAE’s strategy. By leveraging its status as an energy superpower, the UAE is solving the AI industry’s primary constraint, thereby making itself an indispensable infrastructure partner for the digital age.

Project Stargate – From US Soil to Emirati Sands

Perhaps the most audacious initiative in the UAE’s investment portfolio is its involvement in the Stargate Project. Announced in January 2025, Stargate is a new company, led by OpenAI, with the staggering ambition of investing $500 billion over four years to build a network of massive AI supercomputing data centers.36 The project, which began with an immediate deployment of $100 billion, is designed to secure American leadership in AI, create hundreds of thousands of US jobs, and provide the foundational infrastructure for developing artificial general intelligence (AGI).47

The consortium of initial equity funders reveals the project’s global and strategic nature: Japanese investment giant SoftBank serves as the lead financial partner, with OpenAI as the lead operational partner. They are joined by American tech titan Oracle and, critically, the UAE’s sovereign investment firm, MGX.26 This places Emirati capital at the heart of the most significant private-sector AI infrastructure project in history. The project’s technology partners include a who’s who of the industry: Arm, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Oracle, who will collaborate to build and operate the computing systems.47

While the initial build-out is focused on US soil, starting with a massive campus in Abilene, Texas 47, the project’s scope is explicitly international. In May 2025, OpenAI announced “Stargate UAE,” the first international deployment of the Stargate platform.34 This landmark initiative is a direct partnership between the UAE’s G42 and the Stargate consortium, including Oracle, NVIDIA, Cisco, and SoftBank, and was developed in close coordination with the US government.34

Stargate UAE employs a unique dual-investment structure that creates a deeply intertwined technological and financial relationship between the UAE and the US. The plan includes the construction of a 1-gigawatt Stargate supercomputing cluster in Abu Dhabi, with the first 200 megawatts expected to be operational by 2026.34 In parallel, the UAE, through MGX, will make reciprocal investments into the US-based Stargate infrastructure.34 This model ensures that while the UAE builds its own sovereign compute capabilities, it remains a key financial stakeholder in the American AI build-out. OpenAI has framed Stargate UAE as the first partnership under its new “OpenAI for Countries” initiative, which aims to help allied governments build sovereign AI capabilities rooted in democratic values.34 The UAE hub is envisioned to provide AI infrastructure and compute capacity to a 2,000-mile radius, potentially serving up to half the world’s population and cementing the UAE’s role as a critical node in the global AI network.34

The Microsoft-G42 Alliance: A Case Study in Techno-Geopolitical Alignment

The partnership between Microsoft and G42 serves as a powerful case study of the UAE’s strategy in action and the new model of techno-geopolitical alignment it represents. In April 2024, Microsoft announced a $1.5 billion strategic investment in G42, acquiring a minority stake in the Emirati AI champion and placing Microsoft’s President, Brad Smith, on G42’s Board of Directors.14

The strategic rationale for the partnership is multifaceted. On a technical level, G42 committed to running its AI applications and services on Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform, and the two companies will collaborate to deliver advanced AI solutions to global public sector clients and large enterprises.14 The alliance also has a significant global development component, with the partners pledging to bring AI and digital infrastructure to underserved nations in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.51 This ambition was quickly realized with the announcement of a $1 billion comprehensive digital ecosystem initiative for Kenya, which includes a geothermal-powered data center, an East Africa Cloud Region running on Azure, and the development of local Swahili AI models.54 To foster a regional talent pool, the partnership also established a $1 billion fund for developers.14

However, the most critical component of the deal, and the key that unlocked this level of deep collaboration, was the Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement (IGAA).14 This first-of-its-kind agreement was developed in close consultation with both the UAE and US governments and serves as a binding commitment for the partnership to adhere to world-leading standards for safe, trusted, and responsible AI.14 The IGAA contractually obligates G42 and Microsoft to comply with US and international trade, security, and business integrity laws.51 This provided the US government with the necessary security assurances and oversight mechanisms to approve the deal, which followed reports that G42 had agreed to divest from Chinese hardware and partnerships to allay American security concerns.16 The Microsoft-G42 alliance, therefore, is more than a commercial transaction; it is a blueprint for how the US can partner with strategically important but geopolitically complex nations, using binding legal frameworks to enable technology transfer while safeguarding national security interests.

InitiativeTotal Investment ValueTimelineLead UAE EntityKey International PartnersStrategic Objective
US Investment Framework$1.4 Trillion 3710 Years (from 2025) 39Various (ADQ, ADNOC/XRG, EGA) 37US Government, Energy Capital Partners, NextDecade 38Secure access to US technology and markets by funding US strategic sectors (AI, semis, energy, manufacturing). 41
AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP)Up to $100 Billion ($30B equity, $70B debt) 27Ongoing (from 2024) 44MGX 27BlackRock, GIP, Microsoft, NVIDIA, xAI, NextEra Energy 27Fund and build next-generation AI data centers and energy infrastructure, primarily in the US and partner countries. 44
Stargate Project$500 Billion (US Project); Stargate UAE: 1GW cluster 344 Years (from 2025) 47MGX (funder), G42 (partner) 34OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Cisco 34Build massive AI supercomputing infrastructure in the US and establish a regional compute hub in the UAE. 47
Microsoft-G42 Alliance$1.5 Billion (Microsoft investment) + $1B developer fund 14Ongoing (from 2024) 14G42 14Microsoft 14Accelerate AI development, run G42 services on Azure, and jointly expand AI infrastructure to underserved nations under a strict security agreement. 14

Building Sovereign Capability – From Silicon to Semantics

While the UAE’s strategy is heavily reliant on international partnerships and foreign technology, its ultimate goal is the development of sovereign AI capability. This ambition is not about achieving complete technological autarky, but rather about cultivating the domestic capacity to control, adapt, and innovate upon the world’s most advanced technologies to serve national interests. This dual strategy—leveraging best-in-class foreign components while simultaneously building indigenous infrastructure and models—is a pragmatic approach to securing long-term technological sovereignty. This section examines the tangible outcomes of this strategy: the powerful supercomputing infrastructure that forms the engine of its ambitions and the culturally significant language models that give it a unique voice in the global AI landscape.

The Condor Galaxy Supercomputer Network: The Engine of Innovation

The physical heart of the UAE’s sovereign AI ambitions is the Condor Galaxy, a network of nine interconnected AI supercomputers being built in a strategic partnership between G42 and the US-based AI hardware pioneer, Cerebras Systems.20 This network represents one of the largest and most powerful AI computing clusters in the world, with a planned total capacity of 36 exaFLOPs of AI compute power.20 An exaFLOP represents one quintillion (

1018) floating-point operations per second, a measure of raw computational performance critical for training today’s massive AI models.

The technical architecture of Condor Galaxy is distinct from the more common approach of clustering thousands of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). Instead, it is built around Cerebras’s revolutionary Wafer-Scale Engine (WSE) technology. Each Cerebras CS-2 and next-generation CS-3 system is powered by a single, massive chip the size of a dinner plate, containing hundreds of thousands of AI-optimized cores.57 This design simplifies the notoriously complex challenge of programming large, distributed computing systems, allowing developers to train enormous models as if they were running on a single, giant processor.21

The deployment of the Condor Galaxy network is proceeding rapidly and strategically. The first supercomputer, Condor Galaxy 1 (CG-1), is fully operational in Santa Clara, California. It links 64 Cerebras CS-2 systems to deliver 4 exaFLOPs of performance and is offered as a cloud service for AI training.20 Following its completion, G42 and Cerebras broke ground on Condor Galaxy 2 (CG-2), also a 4-exaFLOP system, expanding the network’s capacity.21 In a significant recent development, the partnership announced the construction of Condor Galaxy 3 (CG-3) in Dallas, Texas. This new 8-exaFLOP cluster, powered by 64 of Cerebras’s latest CS-3 systems, doubles the network’s previous capacity, bringing the current total to 16 exaFLOPs.58 The strategic placement of these initial, powerful supercomputers within the US tech ecosystem underscores the deeply integrated nature of the US-UAE partnership.

The primary function of the Condor Galaxy network is to serve as the dedicated training engine for the UAE’s sovereign AI models. It provides the immense computational power necessary to develop and refine models like the JAIS family, as well as specialized models for critical sectors such as healthcare (Med42) and scientific research.21 By owning and co-developing this world-class infrastructure, the UAE secures the foundational compute capacity required to pursue its own AI research and development agenda, independent of reliance on renting compute time from other cloud providers.

JAIS – The Arabic Voice in a Global AI Conversation

The most prominent output of the UAE’s sovereign AI infrastructure is JAIS, the world’s most advanced open-source Arabic Large Language Model (LLM).33 Developed through a collaboration between G42’s Inception unit (now part of Core42), the academic prowess of MBZUAI, and the hardware of Cerebras Systems, JAIS is a landmark achievement in generative AI.22 Its name, inspired by the UAE’s highest peak, signals its national significance.

JAIS is not a single model but a family of models ranging in size from 590 million to 70 billion parameters.61 The models are built on a transformer-based, decoder-only architecture similar to GPT-3 but incorporate advanced features like SwiGLU activation functions and ALiBi position embeddings, which improve performance and allow the model to handle much longer text inputs—a critical feature for complex reasoning and document analysis.33

The training of JAIS is a case study in bilingual data strategy. Recognizing the relative scarcity of high-quality digital Arabic text compared to English, the developers trained the models on a massive, combined dataset. The Jais 30B model, for instance, was trained on a corpus containing 126 billion Arabic tokens, 251 billion English tokens, and 50 billion code tokens.22 This bilingual approach leverages the vast amount of English data to improve the model’s overall reasoning and capabilities, which then transfers to its performance in Arabic.33 The entire training process was performed on the Condor Galaxy 1 supercomputer, demonstrating the direct link between sovereign infrastructure and sovereign models.22

Performance benchmarks show that JAIS has successfully achieved its goal of setting a new standard for Arabic AI. The 30-billion-parameter version significantly outperforms its 13B predecessor and all other open-source Arabic models.22 Critically, its performance is on par with monolingual English models of similar size, a remarkable achievement given the data disparity.22 Human evaluations confirm its superiority, with its responses preferred over Jais 13B in 96% of Arabic comparisons.22

The strategic importance of JAIS extends far beyond its technical specifications. In a world where AI development is dominated by English and Mandarin, JAIS represents a powerful tool for cultural and linguistic preservation. By creating a high-quality, open-source Arabic LLM, the UAE ensures that its language, culture, and regional nuances are accurately represented in the AI era, preventing a future of digital marginalization.22 Its open-source release on platforms like Hugging Face and its availability on Microsoft’s Azure AI model catalog are intended to democratize access and catalyze the growth of a vibrant AI ecosystem across the Arabic-speaking world, which encompasses over 400 million people.22 JAIS is a clear demonstration of the UAE’s unique approach to AI sovereignty: it is achieved not by rejecting foreign technology, but by mastering its integration to produce capabilities that are distinctly national and culturally specific. This pragmatic path, which focuses on the application and adaptation layers of the tech stack rather than attempting to reinvent foundational hardware, offers a potential blueprint for other nations aspiring to technological autonomy in the age of AI.

Project NameLead UAE EntityKey Tech PartnersCore TechnologyPlanned Compute PowerPrimary Purpose
Condor Galaxy NetworkG42 20Cerebras Systems, AMD 20Cerebras CS-2 & CS-3 Systems (Wafer-Scale Engine) 2036 exaFLOPs (total planned); 16 exaFLOPs (current) 20Dedicated training infrastructure for the UAE’s sovereign AI models (e.g., JAIS, Med42). 21
Stargate UAEG42 (partner), MGX (funder) 34OpenAI, Oracle, NVIDIA, Cisco, SoftBank 34GPU-based supercomputing (e.g., NVIDIA Blackwell) 641 GW cluster (Phase 1: 200 MW by 2026); potential 5 GW 34Regional AI compute hub for OpenAI models; enabling nationwide ChatGPT access and serving a broad market. 34

The Geopolitical Chessboard – Navigating a New Technological World Order

The UAE’s monumental push into artificial intelligence is not occurring in a vacuum. It is a calculated strategic maneuver on a global chessboard dominated by the escalating technological rivalry between the United States and China. The UAE’s ability to execute its ambitious vision is contingent upon its skill in navigating this complex geopolitical landscape. By decisively aligning with the American technology ecosystem, the UAE has secured access to the world’s most advanced AI tools, but this choice comes with stringent security obligations and persistent scrutiny. Simultaneously, the UAE is asserting itself as a regional leader, entering a fierce but nuanced competition with Saudi Arabia for AI supremacy in the Gulf. This section analyzes the geopolitical dimensions of the UAE’s strategy, from its “great decoupling” from Chinese technology to the inherent risks and ethical dilemmas that accompany its rise as an algorithmic state.

The Great Decoupling: Aligning with Washington

The defining geopolitical reality of the 21st-century technology landscape is the intensifying competition between the US and China. Washington has implemented a series of increasingly strict export controls designed to prevent Beijing from acquiring the advanced semiconductors and manufacturing equipment necessary to build frontier AI models.55 These controls, while targeted at China, have created significant challenges for third countries like the UAE, which have historically sought to balance strong economic ties with both superpowers.69

Faced with a choice between access to China’s market and access to America’s “crown jewel” technology, the UAE has made a decisive strategic pivot. High-level Emirati officials have publicly and privately affirmed their commitment to align with the US in the AI domain.55 This alignment has been demonstrated through concrete actions. The UAE’s flagship AI company, G42, has undertaken a well-documented “decoupling” from Chinese technology, divesting from its stake in TikTok parent company ByteDance and stripping Chinese hardware, such as that from Huawei, from its data centers.7

This strategic realignment was a non-negotiable prerequisite for the deep partnerships the UAE now enjoys with top US firms. The $1.5 billion Microsoft-G42 deal, for example, was contingent upon these divestments and was cemented by the Intergovernmental Assurance Agreement (IGAA), a binding legal framework that grants the US government significant oversight and ensures compliance with American security protocols.14 Similarly, the Trump administration’s decision to reverse more restrictive export control policies and greenlight the sale of hundreds of thousands of advanced AI chips to the UAE was explicitly linked to the country’s commitment to prevent the diversion of US technology.41

From the US perspective, this partnership, while requiring careful management, offers substantial strategic benefits. It secures a capital-rich and energy-abundant ally to help fund and power the global expansion of US-led AI infrastructure, a critical advantage in the race against China.69 By integrating the UAE into its technological stack under strict security conditions, the US reinforces its own technology standards as the global norm and erects a significant barrier to Chinese technological influence in a strategically vital region.74 The UAE, in turn, gains its coveted status as a trusted partner with privileged access to the chips, models, and expertise essential to its national ambitions.

A Comparative Analysis: The Gulf’s AI Race

The UAE’s quest for AI leadership is unfolding alongside a parallel and equally ambitious drive by its neighbor, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Both Gulf powerhouses see AI as the cornerstone of their economic diversification strategies and are investing vast sums of sovereign wealth to establish themselves as regional tech hubs.12 While their ultimate goals are similar, their strategic approaches, institutional structures, and priorities reveal important distinctions that will shape the future of technology in the Middle East.

On the investment front, both nations are operating at a colossal scale. In 2024, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia announced their intentions to establish AI-focused investment funds with targets of around $100 billion.76 These funds are being used to fuel domestic initiatives and forge international partnerships. In terms of infrastructure, both countries are racing to build massive data center capacity. While current capacity is comparable, long-term projections suggest Saudi Arabia has more ambitious plans, with a future pipeline of 2,200 megawatts compared to the UAE’s 500 megawatts.31

The primary divergence lies in their strategic and institutional models. The UAE employs a more agile, decentralized, and partnership-driven approach. Its strategy is executed through a constellation of powerful, semi-independent entities like G42 and MGX, which are empowered to move quickly and forge bespoke alliances with global tech leaders.76 This model prioritizes innovation and speed, leveraging international expertise to accelerate progress. Saudi Arabia, in contrast, has adopted a more centralized, top-down approach steered by the Saudi Data and AI Authority (SDAIA), which oversees the implementation of its National Strategy for Data and AI (NSDAI).76 This structure is designed to ensure alignment with national priorities and to direct large-scale, state-led initiatives across key sectors like government, healthcare, and energy.79

This difference in approach is also reflected in their talent strategies. The UAE, with its small citizen population and large expatriate workforce, has prioritized attracting top global talent to its shores, exemplified by the international faculty and student body at MBZUAI.76 Saudi Arabia, with a much larger domestic population, is placing a greater emphasis on developing its local workforce, with the NSDAI setting ambitious targets to train tens of thousands of Saudi data and AI specialists.81 This rivalry, while competitive, is ultimately accelerating the region’s technological transformation, turning the Gulf into a new and powerful center of gravity in the global AI landscape.

MetricUnited Arab EmiratesKingdom of Saudi Arabia
Headline Investment~$100 billion AI fund (MGX) 24~$100 billion AI fund (PIF-backed) 76
National StrategyNational AI Strategy 2031 3National Strategy for Data and AI (NSDAI) 78
Key Governance BodyUAE Council for Artificial Intelligence; AIATC 1Saudi Data and AI Authority (SDAIA) 78
Strategic ApproachAgile, decentralized, partnership-driven 76Centralized, state-steered, national-scale initiatives 76
Talent StrategyAttracting top global talent 76Developing local Saudi talent 76
Key InfrastructureCondor Galaxy, Stargate UAE 20KAUST supercomputer, AWS/Google cloud regions 31
Primary Int’l PartnersMicrosoft, OpenAI, BlackRock, Cerebras 14Google, AWS, various US tech firms 31

Risks, Ethics, and Governance: The Double-Edged Sword

The UAE’s audacious AI strategy, while promising immense economic and geopolitical rewards, is fraught with significant risks and complex ethical challenges. Its success hinges on navigating a delicate balance between technological ambition and responsible governance, a task made more difficult by its geopolitical position and domestic political structure.

The most immediate risk is the nation’s strategic dependence on foreign technology. While the UAE has masterfully used this dependence to gain access and build partnerships, it remains vulnerable to shifts in US policy.65 Any change in the US administration or a geopolitical crisis could lead to a tightening of export controls, potentially disrupting the supply of the very chips and software upon which the entire strategy is built. Furthermore, despite official agreements and security assurances, concerns persist within the US government about the potential for technology diversion to China, given the UAE’s historical and ongoing economic ties with Beijing. This lingering mistrust means the UAE’s position as a “trusted partner” is conditional and subject to continuous scrutiny and verification.65

The most profound ethical challenge stems from the deployment of powerful AI surveillance tools within an authoritarian state. Human rights organizations have raised serious concerns about the potential for these technologies to be used to suppress dissent, monitor citizens, and violate fundamental rights to privacy and freedom of expression.86 The UAE has a documented history of using surveillance technologies, such as the Pegasus spyware, against activists, journalists, and political opponents.86 The integration of advanced AI capabilities—including facial recognition, behavioral analytics, and predictive policing—into this existing security apparatus could facilitate repression on an unprecedented scale and efficiency.86

In response to these concerns, the UAE has made efforts to establish a robust governance framework. It has enacted data protection laws, such as the PDPL and the DIFC’s specific regulations for autonomous systems, and has published national AI Ethics Guidelines emphasizing fairness, transparency, and accountability.6 The country is also embracing international standards like ISO 42001 for AI management systems.10 However, the critical question remains whether these frameworks, in a context of limited civil society and political transparency, will be sufficient to prevent misuse and satisfy the stringent ethical and legal requirements of international partners, particularly the European Union and its extraterritorial AI Act.2 The UAE’s AI gambit is a high-wire act, and its long-term success will depend as much on its commitment to ethical governance as on its technological prowess. This dynamic has given rise to a new form of international relations, where the UAE is pioneering a model of “techno-diplomacy.” It is using its investments in digital infrastructure and AI partnerships as a primary instrument of foreign policy and soft power. Initiatives like the Microsoft-G42 project in Kenya, MGX’s joint venture to build an AI campus in France, and its positioning as a regional compute hub are not just commercial ventures; they are deliberate acts of foreign policy.23 By providing capital, infrastructure, and a “third way” partnership model that is often perceived as less constraining than those offered by the US or China, the UAE is forging new alliances and expanding its geopolitical influence.83 This strategy elevates the UAE’s status from a regional energy power to a global player in the technological domain, capable of shaping the digital development of other nations.

This approach also reveals a crucial truth about the nature of the global AI competition. The contest between the US and China is not simply about who can build the best AI model; it is a battle to establish the dominant global technological ecosystem. The US strategy, exemplified by its deep partnership with the UAE, has evolved beyond mere containment of China. It is now a proactive effort to build a broad, global, US-aligned AI ecosystem. The US holds a significant lead in the core pillars of this ecosystem: it has a roughly tenfold advantage in total compute capacity, a vast lead in private sector AI investment, and remains the top destination for global AI talent.90 By integrating key allies like the UAE—who bring their own immense capital and energy resources to the table—the US can leverage its strengths and mitigate its weaknesses (such as domestic energy constraints) to rapidly expand its global infrastructure footprint. This long-term strategy aims to make the US-led ecosystem, with its standards, protocols, and partners, the default global choice, thereby winning the larger strategic competition even if China occasionally produces a competitive AI model. The UAE is not just a customer in this ecosystem; it is a foundational partner and a key battleground in the war for technological supremacy.

Strategic Outlook and Recommendations

The United Arab Emirates has launched a national project of breathtaking scale and ambition. Its multi-pronged strategy to become a global AI superpower, built on a foundation of immense capital, strategic partnerships, and a clear national vision, has fundamentally reshaped the global technology landscape. However, the path forward is laden with both extraordinary opportunity and significant risk. This final section synthesizes the report’s findings to provide a forward-looking analysis of the UAE’s AI gambit and offers actionable recommendations for key stakeholders navigating this new reality.

The UAE as a Global AI Linchpin: Future Scenarios

The trajectory of the UAE’s AI strategy can be envisioned through three potential scenarios, each contingent on its ability to manage geopolitical pressures, technological dependencies, and the challenges of domestic innovation.

Bull Case: The “Switzerland” of Compute

In the most optimistic scenario, the UAE successfully leverages its unique advantages to become a critical global hub for AI—a neutral, trusted, and highly capable nexus of compute, capital, and governance. In this future, it solidifies its position as the world’s premier location for energy-intensive AI infrastructure, attracting hyperscalers and AI labs from across the globe. Its sovereign AI models, like JAIS, become the standard for their linguistic and cultural domains, and its techno-diplomatic model allows it to bridge Western technology with the rapidly growing markets of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The UAE becomes an indispensable linchpin in the global AI supply chain, translating its 20th-century energy wealth into 21st-century technological influence.

Bear Case: The Perils of Dependence and Overreach

The pessimistic scenario sees the UAE’s grand ambitions undone by geopolitical realities and internal challenges. A significant shift in US foreign policy could sever the UAE’s access to the critical American technology upon which its entire strategy depends. A failure to rigorously enforce security protocols could lead to a breach of trust with Washington, resulting in the reimposition of strict export controls. Simultaneously, the challenge of building a sustainable, innovative talent pool proves insurmountable, leaving the UAE as a wealthy consumer of foreign technology rather than a creator. In this scenario, concerns over AI-driven surveillance intensify, leading to international censure and making it difficult to operate within global regulatory frameworks like the EU AI Act. The UAE’s AI dream becomes a cautionary tale of strategic overreach and the vulnerabilities of a dependent development model.

Most Likely Scenario: The Strategic Partner

The most probable outcome lies between these two extremes. The UAE will likely succeed in establishing itself as a major global hub for AI infrastructure and investment, a critical partner in the US-led technology ecosystem. It will be a dominant force in regional AI, successfully deploying the technology to diversify its economy and enhance public services. However, it will face persistent challenges in moving up the value chain from a master integrator and deployer of foreign technology to a true source of foundational innovation. Its relationship with the US will remain central to its success, requiring a constant and delicate balancing act to maintain its status as a “trusted partner” while pursuing its own strategic autonomy. The UAE will become a powerful and influential player in the AI world, but its role will be that of a strategic partner and enabler rather than a fully independent superpower capable of challenging the US or China on a fundamental level.

Recommendations for Stakeholders

The emergence of the UAE as a major AI power requires a strategic recalibration from international investors, technology corporations, and Western policymakers.

For International Investors:

The most robust and immediate opportunities lie in the foundational layers of the UAE’s AI build-out. Investments in companies providing data center infrastructure, innovative energy solutions, and specialized hardware and software that support the major state-backed projects like AIP and Stargate UAE are well-positioned for growth. However, any investment thesis must be heavily weighted with geopolitical risk analysis. Due diligence should extend beyond financial projections to include a thorough assessment of the stability of the US-UAE strategic alignment, the enforcement of security agreements, and the potential for shifts in US export control policy. The UAE’s success is inextricably linked to its relationship with Washington; investors must price in this dependency.

For Technology Partners (e.g., US Tech Firms):

The UAE should be viewed not simply as a lucrative market for technology sales, but as a strategic co-investment and infrastructure partner. American and European tech firms should actively explore opportunities to leverage the UAE’s vast capital reserves and low-cost energy to scale their own global operations. Partnering with Emirati entities like G42 and MGX can provide the funding and physical infrastructure needed to build out global AI services at a speed and scale that would be difficult to achieve alone. However, this engagement comes with a non-negotiable cost: a commitment to navigating complex and stringent security and compliance frameworks. Agreements like the IGAA are the new standard for deep technology partnerships, and companies must be prepared to invest in the legal and technical resources necessary to ensure full compliance.

For Policymakers (e.g., US/EU Governments):

Western governments should continue to use access to their advanced technology as a powerful lever to ensure strategic alignment and promote robust ethical and security governance. Rather than employing blunt, one-size-fits-all restrictions, policymakers should develop clear, stable, and transparent pathways for nations to earn “trusted partner” status. This approach creates powerful incentives for countries to align with the US-led ecosystem and adopt its standards for responsible AI. Proactive engagement with the UAE on the development of global AI governance standards is also crucial. By working with the UAE in international forums, the US and EU can leverage the Emirates’ growing techno-diplomatic influence to build a broader coalition for safe, secure, and trustworthy AI, reinforcing a rules-based order for this transformative technology.

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